Is the coronovirus epidemic already at peak in India? And can the spread of the virus be controlled by early next year?
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A group of top scientists in India believe this. Their latest mathematical model suggests that India has surpassed its peak of infection reported in September and the epidemic could be controlled by February next year. All such models are clear: people will wear masks, avoid large gatherings, maintain social distance and wash their hands.
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India has recorded some 7.5 million Kovid-19 cases and more than 114,000 deaths so far. It contains one-sixth of the world's population and one-sixth of the reported cases. However, India accounts for only 10% of the virus deaths in the world. Its case fatality rate, or CFR, measures the deaths of Kovid-19 patients, the lowest in the world - less than 2%.
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India entered a record peak in mid-September when it reported over one lakh active cases. Since then there has been a steady decline in caseload. Last week, an average of 62,000 cases and 784 deaths occurred in India every day. Daily deaths are also decreasing in most states. Testing remains consistent - last week, on average, more than one million samples were tested every day
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