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India passed its COVID-19 peak in September and if the current trend continues, there will be "minimal cases" by February.
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These are the findings of a modeling study by a seven-member expert panel on the future course of the epidemic, which was commissioned by the Department of Science and Technology.
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According to the study, India's COVID burden is expected to tackle 106 million symptomatic infections by early next year, with fewer than 50,000 active cases from December. As of Sunday there are 74 lakh confirmed cases, of which around 7,80,000 are active infections.
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It is, however, based on no spikes triggered by festivals or mutations in the virus of its spread in winter.
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Scientists associated with the study said there would be no benefit from the lockdown or the measures that are in place today. A complete shutdown should only be considered at sub-district levels if there is a spike that threatens local healthcare capacity, he said.
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Coronavirus | The Ministry of Finance says that COVID-19 predicts peak past growth
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A modeling study called "COVID-19 India National Supermodel" is the result of an analysis of mathematicians and epidemiologists by an expert committee. Several mathematical model-based estimates of the epidemic have been made by various groups in India and internationally. However, experts - and even government officials - have publicly warned that they were meant to guide policy and should not always be taken literally.
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The ICMR, in its latest sero-survey in August, estimated that 7% of the adult population was exposed to the virus.
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The modeling committee, however, said it was under an estimate. The panel said that as of August, about 14% of the population was likely to be infected, citing a small sero-survey showing a prevalence of antibodies between 22 and 30% in many cities. Withdrawn from here, about 30% of the countries were exposed to the virus by Sunday.
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Comment Imperial after peak of India's September virus
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Professor Vidyasagar of IIT, Hyderabad and Chairman of the Committee Prof. M. Vidyasagar said, "The epidemic has reached a peak, but it has caused a very downward trend, as it will continue with protective measures."
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One possible reason for India already reaching its peak could be the changing susceptibility of various people to the virus, said Lt. Gen. Madhuri Kanitkar, physician and a member of the committee.
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"Some people infected with the virus develop the disease and some only develop antibodies. Generally you expect that 60% -70% of the population will need to be infected for herd immunity. However, the virus's "attack rate" (rate of new cases) seems to slow down, Lt. Gen. Kanitkar said in a public webinar to make the study's results public.
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Professor Vidyasagar said that in the coming week, a full explanation of the methods employed in the peer-review Indian Journal of Medical Research will be available. He said the committee had relied on publicly available datasets and "integrated the best in similar models" available globally.
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If there was no lockdown, India would have seen a peak of active infection of up to 40-147 lakh by June and a lockdown starting from April 1 or May would have seen a peak of 30-40 lakh by July, Prof. Vidyasagar said.
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“We had 15 times more (without lockdown) peak than what we had earned till September and completely overwhelmed our health systems and between 6–25 + lakh deaths. The lockdown was necessary and came at the right time, ”he said.
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The committee said in a press statement, "Along with the simultaneous closure of various security protocols such as wearing masks, social disturbances, etc., India has allowed it to fare better than many other countries."
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“The current personal security protocols need to continue in full measure. Otherwise we will see a rapid increase in infections. Avoiding congestion, especially in closed spaces, and special care for children above 65 years is even more important. The statement said that individuals with co-morbidity need to be extra vigilant.
A dramatic decline is expected in December and the government underlines that a vaccine will be available by March, with Lieutenant General Kanitkar saying that a vaccine will still be particularly useful to health workers and those who are older and most vulnerable "Limited" are unable to move more freely in homes. "
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